Chiefs Vs Ravens
Can we all just settle down a little bit on how scary it is to pick against Mahomes? It's not disrespectful to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to say that they are going to get blown out in a football game if in fact they are going to get blown out in a football game. Which they are. Probability does not give a shit about your last 10 matchups if those 10 matchups ain't like the one in front of you. This Ravens team ain't the last 11 times Mahomes was a dog let me tell you. Vegas is leaving a ton of money on the table by not pricing this game correctly. If this number was at Ravens -6.5, the books would drown from the fire hose of money that would gush in on the Chiefs. And then Vegas would laugh all the Federal Reserve as they watch everyone holding Chiefs +6.5 tickets tear them up in disgust when they were already planning their trip to the Bahamas.
I'm not going to list stats. It's not necessary if you are anything above legally blind. Hell, even if you are blind you could listen to Ravens radio broadcasts if such things still exist and easily gather that the Ravens might be pretty good. The Ravens are just flat out shitkickers firing on all cylinders and getting healthier as the playoffs progress. If Mahomes takes this one down, God Damn. This will be the most impressive win bar none of his career, Super Bowl or otherwise. The Chiefs should not win this game. They certainly can..........but how?
The beauty of having a coach with both voluminous big game experiences and the intelligence to try to not be smarter than the room is the reason I see the Ravens pasting the Chiefs tomorrow. Yes, the Chiefs are excellent at corner. If you want to take away the pass from Lamar, he may have a career rushing day tomorrow. If Lamar Jackson running the football looks like Kaep did against the Packers, Harbaugh is not going to do something dumb like Kylie Shanahan would and go completely away from it. This Ravens as a team are at a point where even though they have the best player in the world at the peak of his powers, they don't actually care who scores the touchdowns and who gets the credit. That's why this team blows so many teams out. Yes they are fucking awesome. But when they are awesome, they are genuinely happy to celebrate each other's success, even though we know damn well it's 2 guys that make this whole thing go. That mentality comes directly from Harbaugh and Lamar. When your leaders are both special talents and selfless, your company or organization can see really special synergies and results. That's what's going on with the Ravens right now. Elite Coach, Elite Best Player, Elite Roster, Elite Culture set by the Elite Coach and MVP. All of that equals virtuosity and dominance.
The Ravens are going to run it straight down, around, over and through the Kansas City Chiefs on the ground. I'm not sure how many rushing TDs the Ravens will have as they may try and get cute in the Red Zone with short passes to Andrews or Lively if the Chiefs sellout on stopping the run. Point is they are going to score, I'm just not quite sure the mechanism or the distribution One particular prop I love at might seem nuts at first, but hear me out. Doesn't this seem like this happens more than 1 out of 4 times in this exact game?
Seems to me like Lamar goes bananas on the ground and the Ravens suffocate Mahomes into a lot of incompletes and short gains. Outside of the Ravens turning the ball over a million times, (not happening) what is the path for Mahomes to win this game? It's really, really narrow.
The spread for this game should realistically be -9.5 if it were based on competitive inputs and not financial, but the books can't operate that way. Lucky you! That's called a very likely winning ticket.
Final Score: Ravens 29, Chiefs 15
Lions vs 49ers
The 49ers should not be playing in this football game. We all saw it. They hit a 1 outer on the river and survived GB, who should still be violently vomiting over how sick losing that game should make them feel. I'm still vomiting as someone that knew GB was going to win that game if they didn't do ...... Exactly what they did. Which is blow a game when they were 98.7% to win.
This is a don't overthink spot. To hell with rushing defense this and passing yards that and this LB and this .....stop. Who fucking cares. Here is all you need to know about this game to enjoy your evening:
The 49ers are a much, much better football team than the Lions. They got historically lucky to escape the Packers. This means they will be incredibly focused for this game and ready to return to their normal shit kicking ways. Weather will be great, but Jared Goff's road numbers are what they are. The Lions might have some drives and get to
20 points, but that won't be nearly enough. I'd be absolutely shocked if the Lions marched up and down the field and scored 27+ points, which they will almost certainly need to do to win this game. Even if Goff has just an ok game, probably a pick coming if they are down 2 scores and pressing. Multiple Goff/Lion turnovers and this thing gets ugly, fast.
Detroit's path to covering/winning this game centers around 1 player. Gibbs. He has to have a looney toons game, 125 total yards 3 touchdown kind of game, because I just don't see 2-3 TDs coming from Goff in this spot. Montgomery is a nice back, but Gibbs is the dude. They took him that high for a reason. He's gotta bring like he's never brought it if the Lions are goin' to the Bowl.
Final Score: 49ers 34, Lions 17